12/2/2023 0 Comments Week 4 odds nflWhat we know about the Eagles: The Eagles are home favorites this weekend. What we know about the Jaguars: The Jags have now covered three of four after failing to cover a single time in a seven game stretch. Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 48.5) They haven't covered consecutive home games since doing so in Weeks 9 and 12 in 2020. What we know about the Falcons: The Falcons covered at home in Week 1 against the Saints as 5.5-point underdogs (27-26 loss). What we know about the Browns: All three Cleveland games have gone over the total this season, giving them more overs in the 2022 season than they had over the final two months of the 2021 season. That's the case this week with the Bears coming to town after the Giants hosted the Cowboys on Monday night.Ĭleveland Browns (-1.5, 50) at Atlanta Falcons seven straight covers for the G-men when on a short week. What we know about the Giants: Not one, not two, not three. What we know about the Bears: The Bears are 2-8 ATS in their past 10 road games against the NFC. If you have a feel for game flow, there's value to be had! What we know about the Ravens: Each of Baltimore's past four games have seen the total be at least 11 points different than the projection. What we know about the Bills: The Bills have been road favorites in seven games since the beginning of last season and five of them have gone under the total. Over the past five seasons, only the Steelers (76.5%) have covered October games at a higher rate than the Saints (72.2%).īuffalo Bills (-3.5, 52) at Baltimore Ravens What we know about the Saints: A rough start, but a welcomed calendar flip. What we know about the Vikings: The Vikings are just 1-4 ATS over their past five road games, with that lone win being a 17-9 win over the Bears in Week 15 last season. Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 44) at New Orleans Saints What we know about the Bengals: That's four straight unders in Bengals games, this coming on the heels of a 7-2-1 stretch for overs. What we know about the Dolphins: That's 10 covers in 12 games for the Fins, with under tickets cashing in eight of those games. Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 47) at Cincinnati Bengals As for how every team looks through three weeks. These recent trends like the Ravens as the best value in the Super Bowl markets through September. But they did so after being outgained by 70 yards through three quarters, something that happens roughly 18% of the time. I can hear you: "Whatever, Miami beat them head-to-head!" True. The Ravens grade out as a very reasonable Super Bowl pick through three weeks (+1400, T-6th highest odds). Current marks: Ravens (4.3%), Browns (1%) and Dolphins (0.8%). Current marks: Ravens (+7.3), Dolphins (+6.3) and Browns (+4.3)Įvery Super Bowl winner this millennium has had an interception rate north of 2%. Of these past 13 champions, they've outscored opponents by an average of 7.6 points during the regular season. So how do we pick where to place a futures bet? A little projecting. Great, so who are those teams?īaltimore Ravens (2-1 ATS, league-high +43.5 points in total margin)Ī weird list? Little bit. So, through three weeks, recent trends suggest that our future Super Bowl champion has a winning record (both outright and ATS) along with a positive total margin. With those two Brady seasons removed, only three of 11 measured teams had a negative point total compared to the over/under through three games. Even wilder? Remove two fully healthy Tom Brady Super Bowl seasons in New England (20, thought being here that a full healthy Brady in the midst of a dynastic run isn't exactly a normal handicapping situation) and that rate jumps to an absurd 78.8% (outright: 84.8%). Since 2009, 10 of 13 Super Bowl champs had a winning record against the spread through three games, and as a group, that set of teams covered 71.8% of games (outright: 79.5%). You have reached a degraded version of because you're using an unsupported version of Internet Explorer.įor a complete experience, please upgrade or use a supported browserĮvery NFL team's record vs.
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